International Trade Forecast for 2023
Every major event or development in one part of the world has positive or negative effects all over the world. The biggest reason for this situation is globalization. With globalization, there have been significant changes in economic, social, and political fields. With the effect of globalization in the economic field, goods and services and capital have started to circulate freely between countries. In addition, foreign investments and the number of international companies continue to increase day by day in the globalized economy. This situation has caused states to become more economically interdependent. The 21st-century interdependence defines this situation.
Free trade based on interdependence has enabled countries to make decisions aligned with their common interests. As countries have become more interdependent, foreign trade in the world has increased day by day. For all these reasons, international trade results and analysis are of great importance for every state. Just before the end of 2022, what are the global foreign trade expectations for 2023? What are the reasons behind these expectations? It is necessary to seek answers to such questions. In this article, detailed information about the international trade forecast for 2023 will be given.
International Trade Expectations in 2023
The World Bank publishes a detailed report annually containing its expectations regarding international trade. In June 2022, the World Bank published the Global Economic Prospects Report.
In the first part of the report, current situations in the world and their effects on international trade are discussed. It was stated that the effects of Russia’s attack on Ukraine after the pandemic that has been going on for more than two years would accelerate the slowdown in global economic activity. The ongoing war in Ukraine is increasing commodity prices, supply disruptions, poverty, food insecurity, and inflation. Besides, this ongoing situation increases financial instability and policy uncertainty. International trade has faced many downside risks, including escalating geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and supply shortages.
However, in addition to all these adverse events, some countries give hope for international trade. In particular, 2023 forecasts for developing countries and the Asia-Pacific region are more optimistic. Positive developments in these regions are also among the reports that can prevent a possible economic recession in international trade.
Economic Growth Forecasts by Country
The 2022 Global Economic Prospects is a comprehensive report detailing the state of global trade. In this report, the economic and commercial situations of countries and regions are analyzed separately. In addition, the report includes forecasts for the economic growth of countries and regions.
Forecasts for the USA and Eurozone
The 2022 growth forecast for the US economy, which is in the group of developed countries, has been reduced from 3.7% to 2.5%. In addition, the country’s 2023 growth forecast was reduced from 2.6% to 2.4%. Finally, it was noted in the report that the growth expectation for the USA for 2024 is 2%.
In the report, the growth forecast of the Eurozone economy for this year was reduced from 4.2% to 2.5%. The expectation for 2023 has been reduced from 2.1% to 1.9%. Finally, the report predicts that the Eurozone will grow by 1.9% in 2024.
Chinese Economy
China is among the developing countries. In the report, the 2022 growth expectation for the Chinese economy was reduced from 5.1% to 4.3%. The country’s 2023 growth forecast has been reduced from 5.3% to 5.2%. The report determined the 2024 growth forecast of the Chinese economy as 5.1%.
Economic Forecasts for Russia
Growth forecasts for Russia, which were in the middle of the war, decreased. In the report, it is predicted that the Russian economy will shrink by 8.9% in 2022 and 2% in 2023. In addition, it is predicted that Russia will grow by 2.2% in 2024.
Turkish Economy’s Growth Forecast Raised
It also included expectations regarding the Turkish economy in the report. The 2022 growth forecast for Turkey is 2.3%. It is 3.2% for 2023, and 4% for 2024.
Turkey’s Foreign Trade Targets for 2023
According to the 2023-2025 Medium-Term Program shared on September 4, 2022, Turkey’s 2023 export target has been determined as 265 billion dollars. In addition, exports are targeted to be 285 billion dollars in 2024 and 305 billion dollars in 2025.
It was stated in the Program that Turkey’s export-oriented growth strategy would be sustained. The average growth target for 2023-2025 has been determined as 5.3%. In addition, 5% economic growth is targeted for 2023.
Asia Pacific Region Stands Out with Economic Growth
Recent published reports highlight that countries in the Asia-Pacific region will dominate global growth in 2023. Economic growth of around 3.5% is expected for the region in 2023. The region is highly important for international trade and accounts for 35% of the world’s GDP. Significant investments in the region every year, regional free trade agreements, and efficient supply chains are among the factors driving economic growth. In addition, competitive cost and economic policies of the countries in the region ensure the development of the Asia-Pacific region with each passing year.
Importance of the Region for International Trade
Asia-Pacific economies are among the driving forces of international trade. Countries in the region are home to about 2.9 billion people. This situation increases the labor force, supply, and demand in the area of the world. Asia-Pacific countries represent almost half of the world’s trade. APEC, which was established to support the economic cooperation of the countries in the region, enabled its member countries to increase their economic growth. Asia-Pacific countries are engaged in various joint ventures to help integrate the region’s economies and promote international trade.
The Asia-Pacific region is clearly of strategic importance for the world economy and trade. The total GDP of the region is 39 trillion dollars. This figure represents 56% of the world’s economic output. In addition, the Asia-Pacific countries include some of the world’s most dynamic energy and trade routes. The region’s economic growth forecast for 2023 also offers a glimmer of hope for stagnant international trade.
